Cognitive biases&global risks&reduction of risks:
Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks: “All else being equal, not many people would prefer to destroy the world. Even faceless corporations, meddling governments, reckless scientists, and other agents of doom, require a world in which to achieve their goals of profit, order, tenure, or other villainies. If our extinction proceeds slowly enough to allow a moment of horrified realization, the doers of the deed will likely be quite taken aback on realizing that they have actually destroyed the world. Therefore I suggest that if the Earth is destroyed, it will probably be by mistake.
The systematic experimental study of reproducible errors of human reasoning, and what these errors reveal about underlying mental processes, is known as the heuristics and biases program in cognitive psychology. This program has made discoveries highly relevant to assessors of global catastrophic risks. [...]” http://singinst.org/upload/cognitive-biases.pdf
Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction: “In this century a number of events could extinguish humanity. The probability of these events may be very low, but the expected value of preventing them could be high, as it represents the value of all future human lives. We review the challenges to studying human extinction risks and, by way of example, estimate the cost effectiveness of preventing extinction-level asteroid impacts. [...]” http://www.paforge.com/files/articles/Reducing%20the%20Risk%20of%20Human%20Extinction.pdf
admin is discussing. 
admin 14:58 on June 26, 2011 Permalink |
Detecting bias http://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/detecting-bias/